Why should climate change risks be assessed? 

Climate change risk assessment can assist organisations to identify their climate change-related risks or to test the relevance of their existing risk management strategies under climate change to help identify areas where new strategies are warranted.

• Recent observations confirm that our climate is changing and causing temperatures and sea levels to rise (Observed climate and sea level change, Long-term changes).
• Scientific analyses suggest that even if the world adopts strong future climate change mitigation measures, a further change in future climate and sea level is inevitable (Global climate change).
• Therefore, the assumption that existing risk management strategies will suffice under the future climate change can be problematic.

Different types of risk assessments in adaptation planning

A risk assessment is an integrated part of any adaptation planning process (Figure 2). However, the scale of the assessment should depend on the objectives as well as the resource availability of the organisation conducting the assessment. CoastAdapt outlines three levels of risk assessment that are relevant at different stages of an adaptation planning cycle (see Local scale risk):

1. A first-pass risk screening provides a straightforward low-cost screening of exposure to climate change risk based on readily-available data, or expert opinion, to determine whether more detailed assessment may be required, to seek a social and organisation licence to act on adaptation and to appropriately frame your adaptation approach (ideal for resource-constrained organisations with limited data and information).

2. A second-pass risk assessment takes a standard risk-based approach similar to standards like AS/NZS-ISO31000:2009 (Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand 2009) and AS5334 (Standards Australia 2013), using national data and locally available information and expert knowledge to identify how climate change may increase existing risks or create new ones. This helps to prioritise areas where action may be required. It generates a risk register that can be used to identify adaptation options and opportunities.

3. A third-pass (detailed) risk assessment allows further investigation of prioritized and short-listed risks. It can be used to underpin adaptation actions for which more detailed knowledge, data and information are required to act effectively.  This can support a Pathways approach in which thresholds are defined (when the risk will cross a defined tolerable limit), at which point some action is required.  It allows understanding of the extent of impacts from climate change. Neither of these are possible with a first- or second-pass risk assessment. 

Figure 3 and Figure 4 summarise key aspects of these different types of risk assessments.  Table 1 describes when each type of assessment should be used, what outcomes may be expected, and how these can be applied to adaptation planning.

C-CADS and risk assessment:

C-CADS (Coastal Climate Adaptation Decision Support), is the decision support tool of CoastAdapt, supporting coastal managers to make effective adaptation decisions. As shown in Figure 2, it takes users through six steps to fully identify risks, establish actions to address these risks, take action and monitor the outcomes. Risk assessment, as described here, addresses just the first two of these six steps, termed in C-CADS  as ‘Identify Challenges’ and ‘Assess risks and  vulnerabilities’.

Table 1: Recommended context for conducting different types of risk assessments and potential use of their outcomes in adaptation planning.

How to conduct a risk assessment

The core of the risk assessment process is based on the four steps shown in Figure 2. These four steps are followed in each of the three levels of risk assessment, but with increasing depth and different types of analysis. Table 2 shows a general overview of these four steps for the three levels of assessment. These are discussed in further detail in each guidance document (see below).

Guidance to support your risk assessment process

CoastAdapt provides guidance on conducting three levels of climate change risk assessment (Figure 4):

• Guidance on first-pass risk screening
• Guidance on second-pass risk assessment
• Guidance on third-pass (detailed) risk assessment

Please note that these guidelines cover only the risk assessment part of a risk management framework. Guidelines for managing identified risks are available through C-CADS.

Tools to support your risk assessment

CoastAdapt provides a review and a searchable database of national and international adaptation support tools, including tools which can support your risk assessment (Catalogue of adaptation support tools).

In addition, CoastAdapt provides simple tools to support your risk assessment process. These are spreadsheets that you can use along with the guidance material to record information and conduct risk workshops with your stakeholders (Risk assessment templates).

Table 2: Summary overview of the three levels of risk assessment in CoastAdapt.