Australia’s leading climate scientists have spent years probing how climate will change in order to help communities, businesses and sectors understand what is likely to happen in coming decades.

The wine industry has done some serious planning for climate change. They have taken steps to adapt to future climate, implementing changes to management practices such as conserving water.

The wine industry, along with many others, draw on climate projections from CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. In 2015 those agencies released the most comprehensive information set ever developed for Australia on climate changes throughout the 21st century. This is the Climate Change in Australia website, available at www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

‘Pear and apple growers have also used our projections for adaptation planning including installing netting to reduce fruit ‘browning’, and to identify potential new growing locations,’ says John Clarke, from CSIRO.

‘The projections tell us what will change, by how much and by when. There are some changes that we can possibly adapt to incrementally; for others we need to be more pre-emptive. Without projections, we can’t identify which in any reliable way.’

‘People have used projections for planning. Others have used them for designing adaptation measures for particular vulnerable systems, such as designs of buildings, roads.’

John says hot days will continue to become more frequent and hotter, and sea levels will keep rising. Extreme rainfall events across the nation are likely to become more intense, even where annual-average rainfall declines.

So what is John’s advice about using these projections?

‘We’re not giving forecasts. You need to take into account the full range of possible future changes. One set of numbers might be okay in planning for a worst case. Most times though, you need to consider the range.’

‘We can only come up with plausible estimates consistent with the laws of nature.’

Did you know about these projections? Can you share how you have used them? What sort of projections are valuable to you? Are there particular variables, such as rainfall changes or sea-level rise, that you need more information about?

The projections are available at www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au